Battle for the global climate in Dubai - the empire strikes back

Led by conference president Sultan Ahmed Al-Jaber, who serves not only as the UAE's Minister of Industry but also as CEO of the state oil company ADNOC, the summit aimed to chart a course away from fossil fuel dependency. Amidst the eco-futuristic setting of the Expo, where sustainable innovations abound, it was easy to momentarily forget the arid surroundings reminiscent of Tatooine.

Expo2020, held two years prior, showcased Dubai's ambition as a pioneer in merging gigantism and sustainability. The contrast between the millions who attended that spectacle of the future and the comparatively modest gathering of COP28 delegates underscores the gravity of the climate challenge.

Negotiations take place here in the shadow of a giant falcon, the emblematic animal of the Emirates. Architect Santiago Calatrava chose this motif for the Expo pavilion of the United Arab Emirates. Movable wings form the roof, which can be opened completely within a very short space of time, allowing electricity to be generated via photovoltaic panels. In the event of sandstorms, the same wings provide effective protection when closed. Sustainable energy generation and resilience to climate impacts form two symbolic flanks of the COP and seem to show that change is possible: Change is possible.

Perhaps it is due to this overwhelming optimism that the global community still has new hope at the start of the summit. Contrary to the well-rehearsed dramatic curve of climate summits, the supposed opponents in the climate endgame announced a success story: an agreement on a financing approach to compensate for losses and damage to sinking islands and other particularly vulnerable countries that can no longer be prevented. 

But beware, the United Arab Emirates' contribution to the fund of a good 100 million dollars is quite different when you consider that one and a half billion dollars are sometimes spent on creating artificial islands - in the shape of palm trees - off their own coast. Not to mention indoor ski centres in the middle of the desert.

Stormtroopers of fossil energies

The negotiating delegation from Fiji or other island states soon to sink into the sea will hardly have found enough time to visit these newly created island worlds. They must have been too busy with the attack by the fossil fuel stormtroopers on the summit's final declaration. The summit was supposed to decide on a future for the planet without fossil fuels. But things turned out differently.

So is the Sultan Ahmed Al-Jaber any good as a black lord? And who are the Jedis who stand and fight on the light side of the Force? At least the Emirates are well versed in the art of wielding the lightsaber with renewable and digital solutions when it counts. Their Minister for Artificial Intelligence, Omar Sultan Al Olama, explained at the highest level during the climate summit how the potential of renewables can be tapped much better digitally and how a smart energy supply can be designed. While new alliances with nerdy C-3POs as energy managers are emerging on the horizon, people are unsuccessfully trying to imagine what a German counterpart would look like on the big stage of digital solutions.

And other sources of power? The annual global climate protection ranking of all governments compiled by the NGO Germanwatch consistently leaves the top three places vacant. There are no winners in a global community that, across the board, acts as if they have not been able to read the signs of science for three decades. And some of those who place themselves at the top of the podium (USA) irritatingly announce a new coalition in favour of expanding nuclear energy as a climate protection solution at the start of the conference. Questions about how to deal with the risks are ignored - and the answer to the question of the cost of insuring against possible damage is also not to be found in the flowery announcement.

Landscape with the dark and light sides of power

And what else? Countless advisors are buzzing around like hordes of Jawa scrap dealers trying to pick out sustainable solutions from the ruins of the negotiations. And the NGO world gathered in Dubai is largely preoccupied with itself and is currently only partially suited to fulfil the role of the Jedis. If organised civil society allows itself to be so divided by the current geopolitical crises, it will not be able to prevent the climate crisis in the long term. The climate movement must now do without one of its wisest climate warriors, Saleemul Huq, scientist and institute director from Bangladesh - he died far too early a few weeks ago. His voice and advice are missing. Now the movement has to reinvent itself - and it doesn't have much time to do so.

Because in this landscape with the dark and light sides of power, the climate negotiations are in danger of failing. In an unusually open manner, the champions of fossil energy production (such as Saudi Arabia) out themselves as opponents of any restriction of fossil power in the final declaration. Former US Vice President Al Gore, known for proclaiming unpleasant truths, rants about the OPEC dictate for the final conference decision, and twelve-year-old Indian climate activist Licypriya Kangujam storms the stage in the final hours of the negotiations and loudly demands "End fossil fuel, save our planet and our future" before she is taken away. 

In the end, the dark and light sides of power parted company with a narrow compromise - a renunciation, not a reversal - of fossil fuels. And yet all sides never tire of describing the summit as historic. The new hope is an old one: a return of the Jedi Knights to Baku in November 2024 for the next climate summit on oil. Preferably before the Earth has mutated into a Death Star - but that might be a bit too much of an analogy.

This article was first published in German in Monopol on 15th of December 2023.