Analysing the economic benefit of meteorological services for the German energy transition

In addition to improving energy efficiency, developing renewable energies is one of the two pillars of the German energy transition. Solar and wind energy, hydropower and biomass already cover a quarter of the national energy demand and have thereby become a central part of Germany’s energy supply. However, solar and wind power, the two most important sources of renewable energy, are especially dependent on weather conditions.

By means of techniques in energy meteorology it is possible to predict and calculate the fluctuating power generation from solar and wind energy. By translating meteorological values (wind speed) into energy-specific values (electrical output), the costs of generating reserve power are minimised and the grid is stabilised. For this reason, reliable weather predictions establish a basis for precise load and generation forecasting. This is an important prerequisite for a sustainable, efficient and cost-efficient energy supply and is therefore vital for the success of the German energy transition.

The macro-economic importance of meteorological forecasts and of services for the energy sector that are based on them was evaluated as part of a study undertaken by adelphi in cooperation with Prognos. To this end, comprehensive analyses of the value chain of energy meteorology were  conducted, which provided a basis for measuring the economic benefit that results from the provision of meteorological products and services. The goal of the study was to lay the scientific groundwork for future decision-making regarding the development and optimisation of meteorological products.