Over the past ten years, both our understanding and awareness of the links between climate change and security have increased tremendously. Today the UN, the EU, the G7 and an increasing number of states have classified climate change as a threat to global and/or national security.
However, the links between climate change, conflict and fragility are not simple and linear. The increasing impacts of climate change do not automatically lead to more fragility and conflict. Rather, climate change acts as a threat multiplier. It interacts and converges with other existing risks and pressures in a given context and can increase the likelihood of fragility or violent conflict.
Taking the state of play on the links between climate change and fragility as a starting point, the report Insurgency, Terrorism and Organised Crime in a Warming Climate addresses the question of how the impacts of climate change are a contributing factor in the rise and growth of non-state armed groups.
Four case studies that span the whole spectrum of non-state armed groups and patterns of violence, conflict and fragility explore in depth the specific role non-state armed groups play in the complex dynamics of climate change and fragility and try to identify how climate change acts as a risks multiplier in regards to non-state armed groups.