Global Climate Security Risk and Foresight Assessment

UN Security Council

Climate change is one of the most significant foreign policy challenges of the 21st century. Yet while science is providing us with an increasingly detailed understanding of the biophysical consequences of anthropogenic forcing, we still face significant gaps in our understanding of what this will ultimately entail for international peace and security. This project consolidates existing knowledge on the direct and indirect impacts of climate change on international peace and security and expands it, allowing for more and improved comprehensive risk assessments to be conducted. 

To achieve this, the project will develop and pilot new and integrated approaches for conducting climate risk and foresight assessments at different scales. In partnership with the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), adelphi will draw on a network of leading research institutes from around the world. The team will develop an innovative and replicable climate security risk assessment approach that identifies both direct and indirect risks related to climate change, as well as possible entry points for addressing climate security risks. This approach will be tested with a series of pilot assessments generating new insights into priority regions and thematic areas of the climate-security nexus. 

The project pioneers a mixed methods approach that combines cross-sectoral climate impact modelling and data analysis with stakeholder-focused methods and qualitative approaches. adelphi will assess a broad range of biophysical, socioeconomic and political impacts of climate change, their interaction, as well as possible entry points for preventive action by strengthening resilience. To support future complementary risk assessments, for example through the UN, the project team will seek close coordination with the UN and especially the UN Climate Security Mechanism. 

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